CG - Busting Biases in Infosec

all right everybody thank you for coming uh if we can get the door closed thank you for a wonderful besides thank you for being here for our very last talk uh we have an awesome talk on busting biases in infosec um everybody's probably heard my spiel about please keep your cell phones off please don't record things because we're recording it for you uh if you have questions at the end try to speak up you'll repeat them if not you can always come up to the mic I'm gonna get out of your hair and out of your way so we can hear this talk

who [Music] pronoun I or You just don't raise your hands that was good I didn't expect that well what's really funny is that I said you at that point and there were multiple people who Rose their hands all of you identified as part of that you even though I was talking to a group isn't that interesting but if I say who answers to the pronoun I are you the rest of you your brains just went they're not talking about me now he's talking about that person this gentleman here said well he's not talking about the rest of everyone he's talking about me there was a part in your brain that clicked on and off without you having to

analyze what I was saying think about it there was something in your brain that just clicked and said that's me what was that you see over the course of Millennia and hundreds of Millennia that we've existed as a species but as far as brains have existed throughout millions of years Evolution has essentially crafted our brains to develop patterns and these patterns have done all kinds of things for us mostly around survival right if your brain doesn't develop a pattern to identify the rustling trees and the rustling bushes as possibly dangerous there may be a bear or tiger or something back they're going to eat me I need to get out of here you probably didn't survive long enough

to pass on your genes and therefore your brain functions the people who did develop patterns and the animals that did develop patterns to react and to be able to form those Split Second they're not thinking about it it's just the Instinct that gut feeling those are the ones that survived and so these brain patterns exist and these brain patterns persist even today and even walking in and sitting down I've already shown how you've already made a couple little assumptions there but even walking around you've already seen by by um processing sensory input about what's going on up here with me you've already made assumptions you may not realize it for instance you may think that I can see you right now I can kind

of see these people up here I can't see really the rest of you you're a blur and it would really help if I wore my glasses these aren't my glasses these are some empty frames now how many of you thought those were my real glasses there may have been a few of you you didn't think about that you didn't go oh glasses and you know yeah you can probably see with those your brain matched a pattern made an assumption did not arise in your Consciousness to see that but now when I did that just now put my fingers through the frames and revealed that for those that didn't know it probably twinged you a bit like oh

wow I got tricked just a little bit it's not a huge trick but it's a little trick courtesy of uh the great James Randy but you probably had a little bit of wow something happened there that's something happening there is your brain going wow my pattern didn't work I need to develop a new one and so now your brain's already saying we need just like a just like a Sim rule a Sim alert you're already starting to slightly adjust your pattern maybe I should see if there's some kind of reflection in the lenses before I just assume someone has glasses on or maybe your brain just goes what you know what this was a weird

one-off situation and I don't need to develop a pattern for that whatever but your brain is Raising alarms now the question is is you didn't do a thing about that you didn't decide for any of those things to happen to you they happen to you so the real question is is what choice did you really have over any of that thanks for coming to the stock my name is odd job and um I am a co-founder board member and CEO of circle citycon and I've been hacking for 10 years in fact it's really interesting my first Defcon was Defcon 20. [Music] um so that's been really fun to be able to speak at b-sides lv's Ninth year so

I'm very happy to have that um I also work for Fortune 500 as a cyber resiliency director and just a fair warning I am not a psychologist I am not a neurologist I've just learned from some of them but I am no way trained oh I am being approached I need an adult I am an evil fairy I believe you requested oh my goodness it is perhaps possible that I did actually I forgot I requested this uh oh wow all right well you're gonna get malort face through this whole talk that's true

it keeps going too like ah like you know how like a wine kind of develops that just kind of yeah it's glorious and there are also may be some advice that I give that might be considered somewhat of a legal nature but I'm not a lawyer and I'm not giving legal advice go talk to your lawyers about some stuff that you may find legally I don't know suggestive later uh so here's what we're going to talk about we're going to talk about base assumptions about our brains because that's where our base assumptions come from right um and then we're going to talk about some biases and fallacies and what those are functionally within our brains what

those are we're going to talk about how bias uh arises in infosex so how do we see uh biases in our everyday lives including in our jobs uh especially when we're trying to convince people to maybe do certain things or not do certain things we may have to help them overcome their bias and we need to overcome our own on various levels and then we're going to talk a little bit about things you can do to help mitigate or kind of start on a path to notice and mitigate your own biases and there's some junk down it there at the bottom of this uh slide don't know where that came from but so let's get so let's get back to this

because we didn't we didn't answer that question did we who answers the pronoun I or You well again it's all about brain patterns and the real question is what are you yeah you're the meat suit but like what are you so what is generating the units that sounds like woo but we're gonna get into Consciousness here so I want you to take a moment to hold something in your hand could be your badge could be a can of something and I want you to feel like there's there's some texture maybe there maybe there's a corner don't if it's a Coke can don't like cut yourself on any of the thin metal um but yeah just kind of carefully and

and think about that you know notice what's happening now it's interesting because the sensations you're receiving obviously are the touch but the quality of those Sensations that are going on in your brain right now you have no control over those are things your brain are just doing for you it's popping up in Consciousness everything you're noticing about your badge by the way you now have a better understanding and feeling for your badge than you probably did five seconds ago um none of that is your decision you're not making any decisions about what's going on right now with how you're thinking and the way your brain is right now formulating what it thinks and what it's

doing with this so this is very important to kind of understand um so the other question I want to ask is

um essentially make sure I have a on the right slide there okay so the other question I want to ask you is I want you to think of a song that you like now you notice I put some patterns in there or some pauses in there one of the most interesting pauses was between song and you like how many of you when I said song immediately thought of some kind of song the song you liked okay someone said no that's interesting because your brain actually does like to remember negative experiences more than positive but if you've listened to that song loads and loads and loads of time that pattern may override the negative pattern so that's interesting but the

point I'm getting at you didn't choose what song popped into your head you didn't go well the library of music that I'm aware of in my Napster down I mean my Apple downloads that's the song I want to choose your brain said Dua LIPA right something I got that was it okay awesome I'm a mentalist so but you've got that you did not choose to select that song of any choice we could possibly think we really make in life that should be a choice we think we should be able to make because it's completely within us it has nothing to do we think with the outside world but but let me ask you another question how

many of you think if we were to go back just however long it takes to go back to the time before I ask that question and you know nothing about what has happened over the last 30 seconds how many think you would have chosen a different song neurology tells us you wouldn't your brain state would be in the exact same space as when I asked that question and because it was and the circumstances are the same given everything's equal you would come up with the exact same thing now if I were to ask it you'd come up with a load of other things but again you're now in a different brain State okay okay okay so what control do we

really have over our minds then we don't know we actually don't know this this is something that's very misunder not misunderstood but there's just not a lack of knowledge in there um a lot of the things that we have just I've just triggered you in you to think about don't lie at the high level of consciousness because you could review your choice and be like I think I actually really like this song More you could do that and to that level maybe you have a choice but at gut instinct you did not have that choice so really what I want to now talk about are biases because biases live in that world that we just dove into in your mind

it's that part that you don't really have a control over especially the implicit bias portion so let me let me help you understand this so biases are a prejudice in favor of or against something people objects ideas and explicit bias is something that you would admit it's it's something self-reported it's essentially a belief you hold for instance a very common well I won't say common but probably commonly known by us um you know someone might say well I believe men and women are equal but women are built differently and their minds work differently so therefore they're not suited for certain positions and you know what men aren't really people people they're not suited for that they're

analytical so they really shouldn't stay at home and do any of that kind of work because they're mad they're just built differently we're equal but we're just built differently that bias is an explicit bias it is self-reported implicit bias is not something you would even know to admit to it's not a belief you maybe even know you have an implicit bias though does affect your decision making because it's in that unconscious part of the brain that we just went into and it's something that you don't necessarily become aware of until someone kind of does something like this to make you aware of where this is um which actually is funny because there's some uh HTTP not found so maybe

there's something fun there um so an idea of an implicit bias for instance so there was a name there were some name studies that have been done a very interesting name study that was done uh is um I forget which institution did this but they essentially submitted loads of applications to um job postings and essentially what they did is they had job postings and they had applications and they had some male sounding names they had some female sounding names they had some culturally white European sounding names they had some culturally black sounding names some uh you know Latino sounding names Asian sounding names and I know that's an entire continent so there's all kinds of different names that can go there but

they did this they sent this to people but then you know what else they did they took some of the same resumes and just switched the names and they were judged differently just because of the name they didn't go oh well that has to be you know this person so I'm not going to do that they may not have had that going on in their brain at the top level but at the bottom level there was something about the name that biased them at the implicit level against that resume and cause them to downscore that now it's not like there's a 50 difference in scoring but it still is significant enough to where you won't

get a callback in fact I remember as an anecdote there was someone who was trying to apply to Target and she's black she changed her name to a male and a white sounding name and sure enough gotta call back immediately that's an anecdote plural anecdote is not data but definitely the singular anecdote is not data either but that's just another illustration further of this phenomena that we have this implicit bias and by the way this wasn't just men that were reviewing the resumes this was also women so this is something that we all actually can have within us something else I want to talk about is fallacies and in order to understand fallacies just a little bit there's two

things that you need to understand about reasoning this is a syllogism it's a way of essentially arguing and laying out an argument to where you can say by the time the conclusion is cited that yes this is true so let's look at this premise one all humans are mortal premise two odd job as a human conclusion odd job is Mortal okay there's two things that have to be there there's two things that have to be correct in order for this to not only be a true conclusion but a reasonable conclusion first of all the premises have to be true now we could go and talk about whether there are any Immortal humans walking amongst us if any of you are 25

and are actually 25 000 please let me know we want to run tests on you and keep you in a lab in area 51. um but if uh we do know there are Immortal beings on this Earth there's like little microscopic Hydra that literally don't age and don't die their cells reproduce perfectly every time uh Jellyfish are Immortal they don't die they just die when a sea turtle eats them for spaghetti you know that's what I was watching a video that the other day I said this is beautiful oh wow this is actually horrifying depending on the perspective um so so yeah so the premises look like they're true great but not only that it

has to follow now what do I mean by follow well we could also say odd job is Mortal which we all agreed upon in the last syllogism we could say all humans are mortal which again we agreed the premise of the last one but can we say odd job as a human because of the first two premises well I could be a dog and still be immortal right so it does not follow just because our job is Immortal and just because all humans are mortal it doesn't therefore follow that odd job as human even if the premises are true so there's those two different things about logic that you gotta understand here fallacious reasoning happens also at that base level that

bias level that implicit level of the brain to a degree kind of hops up a little bit between implicit and explicit bias um but essentially they those things really mess with your day-to-day especially if you deal with data a lot because coming to conclusions is a very important thing and not everyone develops everything into syllogistic form in order to do that you can't you can't live life that way you can't live life in a syllogism but I want to talk about some biases now because that's why we all came here right we came here to learn about biases we've learned a little about the human brain learned about how we have these vulnerabilities biases some fallacies

some fallacious reason that's built in that's hardwired I want to see the software bill of materials for our brains because uh we got some dependencies that are rotten um I'm sure a few people have probably seen this image okay this is a World War II study that was done during the war um essentially these are bombers that came back from their missions and essentially the Allies wanted to take a look and see hey do we need to beef up armor on our bombers so they took data points each one of those bullet holes represents a bullet hole and location on a bomber that came back in this study and what ended up happening is they

mapped them onto just this image here to show where the bullet holes are and they asked the pool of experts where do you think we should spend the time effort money resources manufacturing power beefing up the armor or something with those locations and most of the experts said well obviously the main fuselage is getting hit the wing tips are getting hit and way back there on the tail Wing we're getting some hits so probably want to focus in those areas because they're getting hit a lot you know bolts are going through so that's not a good thing another expert said we need to take a look at everything that doesn't have a bullet hole and

armor that up because what's missing is not only the bullet holes but what's missing from the study is the planes that didn't come back and where do you think those bullet holes might be if we would have been able to measure them this is what's known as survivorship bias where you're not considering the data you don't have and what that might tell you about what decision you should be making so they went and armored up the engine the cockpit area the back tail fuselage and I think they even maybe did some of the forward Wings more planes came back imagine that and they had bullet holes in those areas so there you go you know what works

hooray bullets or they didn't have holes but they they saw they saw dents right they saw they saw it was working so hooray bullet holes so survivorship bias does exist not just in this model um but essentially when we talk about successful people for instance if you've ever seen a slow media cycle uh during a week you've probably seen like CNBC or someone say oh hey uh here's nine successful habits of successful people and if you emulate these habits you're going to be successful too sounds sounds right sounds like it should follow right odd job is Mortal humans are mortal therefore odd job is human wait so what is happening there is those successful people are waking up at

like 4am they're doing exercise for an hour every day they're reading a book they're taking a half hour just to think and you know what that's cool and that may be good for you but is that what made them successful we're looking at the people who have already survived and risen to the top or sufficiently high to call them successful whatever in this capitalist world and we see that and we say great we need to emulate that but what we're missing are all the people who emulated those exact same factors and qualities and didn't make it maybe those criteria are not the criteria that we should be making our decisions on maybe these criteria are not the criteria we should

be making our decisions on about who to hire who is successful and how do you become successful very similar into how we write um how we write our job descriptions do we need 30 years of experience for an architect right no no we don't because there's plenty of people only have five or six maybe even eight or who knows how many it's not that's trivial that's not what you're trying to get at you're trying to get it what can they actually do what do they actually know and some of that's hard right and we're trying to put things into a job description to try and judge people on something we feel like we can control and know but I've

met people who've had 30 years of experience they don't really know much and I've met people who have a couple years under their belt oh my gosh like they're they're brilliant and I've met everybody in between right I think we all have we even go back to the the study that we talked about the name study um one of the things we can actually do to limit Survivor bias especially in the hiring process is taking a look at removing things that are not good or not good criteria in the job description but when the intake comes in removing things like names because that triggers a bias now we can't necessarily control that bias or even be conscious of it all the

time so a mitigation in that case is to completely just remove it remove the name you don't need it the name is Trivial to knowing whether someone's qualified right what about college names if if you even require a college degree but let's say you don't and people still put that on there you should be proud of your college I think but if you're kind of a person that says well MIT that's fantastic well guess what who goes to MIT and what are you going to end up selecting for probably people who are white probably people who are male CIS abled on and on and on we could go you're leaving a historically black colleges you're leaving out women's

colleges you're leaving out community colleges where people who can't afford to go to Harvard and MIT they weren't in there but if we say am I is the success level we're leaving out everybody else that's killing us on our survivorship bias there and we're losing on a lot of candidates and I bet that job Gap goes from this to this at least if we just did those two things alone and of course I always recommend uh don't even interview people until you know the pool of people in the resume pile or diverse you know if you have 100 applicants and only 10 or non-cis white male you know on and on and on then you don't have probably a

sufficiently diversified candidate pool go find more people Outreach do things like that you don't have to select specifically for that but you have the pool that you pull from and can review it's more likely you're going to get a good sample of people from the population which that feeds into selection bias not a part of this talk today so the other bias that I want to talk about real quick is confirmation bias the solution in search of a problem and so or the conclusion in search of evidence maybe so um essentially confirmation bias is you formed a conclusion for some reason it could even be just a gut feeling you have because you're an expert and you've

been in security for 15 years and you just know when you see this it means this and you're just going to run with it but you know you think this is a Dos attack and you're gonna have to get some evidence and so you go and look for the evidence that confirms a Dos attack and if you're going to do that what the confirmation bias says happens is if you have this bias you start rejecting and we all do this honestly to some degree or another we started either ignoring data we see that is contrary to our conclusion we started out with or we outright reject it we go no and so we may have a little bit of

evidence that we might even go so far as to stretch its validity towards the conclusion to say yeah no you're wrong mountain of evidence I have this little grain of evidence here and I'm good um that's a confirmation bias going on Google seeing all the studies that say you're wrong and then finally that one that says you're right and going like there we go got what I came for I actually had to fight against that for this talk I have confirmation bias and I had to fight against that in fact I ripped art even a part of this talk because I thought I had a selection bias correct and I didn't and I actually searched a good while

looking for my thought and everything kept coming up and I'm like you know what I'm talking about confirmation bias too and uh this is a confirmation bias and I'm actually going to call it out because we do this all the time when we research there's always that little thing that says Nah don't pay attention to that you already got what you came for you really should and so what we should do when we come up with confirmation bias is we should actively seek out ideas conclusions that are the direct opposite of what we're talking about and try to look for how could I be wrong what would that look like test for that it's kind of like a threat

hunting you have your hypothesis you go look for the bad action that matches that hypothesis but before you drop to the conclusion you do it's kind of the scientific method you do look for other explanations you do look for other things that describe this behavior before going off and saying the world's on fire people aren't going to like you very much if confirmation bias causes you a false alarm um there's the curse of knowledge bias and I bet you everyone in this room has the curse of knowledge bias in them so this says there's a tendency for well-informed individuals to find it hard to think about problems from the perspective of poorly formed individuals I got it right I remembered it now

so MFA is actually I'm going to use this twice but MFA is a really good example of this so uh multi-factor authentication we all know why we should have multi-factor authentication or at least we should maybe varying degrees of us do we may even know why we need certain types of multi-factor Authentication maybe SMS isn't good enough right um so we have all that but when you're talking about users they're not stupid they're not informed they don't know what you know they don't know how bad you can really damage their personal life their the company through them and everything else they don't know and so what they're saying is oh I have a username I have a password and now I

got this thing on my phone that I gotta do just so I can do my job and that's the way they see it and this is a bias that's Troublesome for us because when we're not thinking about people who are especially not in our own groups let alone just limited knowledge we're possibly pushing things that are not necessarily harmful to people but inconvenient and might also hurt our ends which is adoption we want everyone to adopt MFA so instead of maybe pounding the hammer maybe we bring not so well-informed people into the discussion we learn from them we talk with them because now we're listening to things that don't already support our well-informed perspective and then we come to this middle point

where we go aha let's deploy this way instead it's more convenient it's better for the user for the use cases better adoption more security yeah we like that that's good stuff can't always do that sometimes it's just impractical and expensive to do either way but just know there is a curse of knowledge bias and there's a way to override that there's also the status quo and system justification bias these two go hand in hand they love each other um so status quo bias is we just love things the way they are if it suits us of course if it doesn't suit us well you obviously don't like the things the way they are but especially people who are

benefited by the way the things are they tend to like things um and system justification bias ensures that they don't want to change and they will not only just go like well that's the way it's always been but they'll say well we can't change it because and then they'll go through a list of things to say why they can't change it totally disregarding maybe the reasons you're giving them to say well it's more expensive to do it this way it's not scalable it's not Deployable it's expensive but it's gonna cost a lot in the short run right but it's going to cost a lot less in the long run right you have to you have to

be able to get over that bias by understanding and getting someone to understand that things don't have to be just the way they've always been and that's actually very hard to get people to realize because as things get more close to person like business is business but when it starts becoming personal and dogma and and things that we all hold very strongly we don't like giving it up our our brain just goes like no don't want to give it up because it's what helps me survive it's that rustling it's that rustling Bush and I need to make sure I I keep I keep safe and you know I've been building my brain for over 30 years and

so those patterns are set you know it loves that it's going to take me a while to to get new patterns going but uh but this one's this one's kind of hard to help overcome for other people but just be aware of it yourself you may also have status quo bias and you may also have status justification bias that you need to overcome yourself prevention bias this is actually really cool as I was looking at biases this is an infosec bias specifically so there's a study and you can go read it it's from 2021. um and it's the prevention bias and essentially the prevention bias says when investing money to protect against risks decision makers perceive that a

dollar spent on prevention buys more security than a dollar spent on timely detection and response even when investing in either option is equally effective so if you have a situation where dollar for dollar it's equally effective they're going to say nope we need more prevention because that's better thank you Gartner magic quadrant people in the prevention sector who have been telling everyone ah don't detect you need prevention you need both um and so this is actually a bias that exists and we've probably dealt with this all and some of us may have had this bias too or have had it at some point or maybe you've overcome some of it um this one is a little bit more of an

explicit bias because it's a belief well prevention is better than detection that is an explicit bias so that's a little easier to overcome we go well is it really here's actually some data that shows this may not actually be the case all the time and you may have to show and do some extra work to help someone understand and get over this bias no we're doing detection response now we've got plenty of prevention in that prevention investment we need to start doing detection and response in a timely manner there's also the peltzman effect which is also known as the risk compensation effect and this is the tendency to take greater risk when perceived safety increases

so let's say we have MFA deployed the company loves it great awesome our our prevention's way up we notice the tax are way down the incidents are way down this is fantastic we love it oh by the way we just went and signed up for a third party SAS provider and we didn't really go and look at the terms and conditions or see if they were cloud certified by anybody questionnaires we didn't pay attention to any of that but you know what we saw that they had MFA and we have MFA and we can use our MFA up there and that's great so it's secure right so we can go ahead and put our most sensitive trade secret and

proprietary data up there and trust that right and you go we didn't put MFA in place so that you could go and take bigger risks we put mitigations and safety in place to take care of the risks you are taking now we have to go through and assess this new model and go here's what we got to do to protect this risk and to ensure this risk event doesn't happen so that's uh that's a that's a little bit of biases on an individual level uh there's a lot more we can go into oh my gosh there were so Dina's princess knows there were so many that I wanted to go through and they were just like no

no you're not gonna have time and I was like no you're right I'm not gonna have time um so how to patch how to patch because patching was everything right patch all the things um so this is not easy this is not there's no prescription for this there is no this is kind of a conglomeration of various things I was able to read that people found effective over time this can be used for other people it can be used for yourself but awareness awareness of biases even just attending this talk already you are now aware of biases you're even I even went a little extra and helped make you aware of what's going on in your brain and swim

around there and kind of understand that maybe made you have an existential moment you're like am I the driver of the meat suit you know do I really make decisions neurology doesn't know so just assume you do for now it's better that way agency is a good thing uh that's a bias explicit um so anyway awareness is always your first step so and there's some online tools I was actually stud uh going across Harvard uh they have very specific explicit biases that you can go and test for and they'll tell you what are some maybe implicit biases that are feeding into some of your beliefs around like vaccines or politics or uh just things around society and and you know

uh hell interracial marriage and everything like that like there's all kinds of issues that they bring up that people have biases over both explicit and implicit and you can maybe Identify some of those in you um so invite feedback inviting feedback is so so so so so important you know it's that it's it's overcoming that confirmation bias that hey I'm actually doing okay because I saw this one thing one time um or you know the data says this but I have this one friend who told me this thing and so I know I'm right there's some familiarity by us there too another one I got one I got another one in but getting other feedback is very

important um and groups that are outside of your social groups or certain certainly very important also don't be defensive most of the time what we're talking about is actually implicit biases they're the hardest to detect the one that you're going to be like what I believe that is the implicit bias the one that surprises you is going to be the implicit bias don't get defensive your brain is going to want to do that by the way it's going to be like oh my gosh fight or flight this is not okay it's okay the world's not gonna fall this guy's not going to fall the world's not going to burn at least not today um maybe in 50 years

um but you don't have to defend your implicit biases because as we talked about the beginning parts of the talk you don't really control those you just have those and you've learned those over time or they've been wired into your brain that's just the way it is but becoming aware of them is very important um so be open to understanding why you act or make decisions the way you do you can make better decisions and fourth be on the lookout for contradictory beliefs and actions like I said there's implicit biases that are of direct contradiction of your explicit beliefs whenever you see that notice wow we've got a bias somewhere if you have two opposing beliefs

that you believe and someone points that out and you go wait what that's something going on one of those is based probably on up or both are based on a implicit bias of some kind and guess what your brain will let you believe both of those things that can't be true are true cognitive dissonance your brain survival mechanism to make sure you don't freak out about things that it thinks is good for your survival so be sure to work on overcoming that and not all biases are negative you could have a bias that kind of is positive about something maybe maybe instead of more of a pessimistic bias it's a it's a it's a it's an optimistic bias still a bias

nonetheless instead of Under reporting you over report instead of underestimating you over under you overestimate you misunderestimate you misoverestimate and so uh and so be be aware of that so sometimes you might go well that's okay well no it's not investigate it see what it's about because again that bias is that little shortcut your brain's making it's that little vulnerability in your brain may not be making the helping you make the best decisions so I'm odd job my YouTube uh is glass of zero J you can get me on Twitter at zero DD j0 or BB you can actually get on my git lab and maybe some of the stuff at the bottom of the screen made sense uh

for any of you uh there'll also be these slides up on my gitlab so you can go check that out I've got a Blog I don't maintain anymore but go ahead and go see it it's got two posts on it and of course go check out circlecine.org it's happening September 16th through the 18th so um does anyone have any questions I'll try to listen really carefully and repeat them or comments or anything criticisms feedback you're totally wrong

oh okay I saw the ice squint and my brain went oh he may have a question you know what I told you Dunning Kruger effect was one I was wanting to do very similar to the um go back to it curse of knowledge bias very similar to the curse of knowledge bias the Dunning Kruger effect it's kind of when you start out and you get a little bit of experience you greatly overestimate the amount that you know and as you get more experience well as you get more experience you come off Mount stupid it's called it probably should be called that but it goes down and you kind of start realizing okay I don't know a lot of things

and then you might start realizing oh yeah I actually do know quite a bit of things there's a lot of us down here in this little thing that we don't think we know a lot but we really do but also you can't really tell them from noobs because they'll under report they're not well these people will report their knowledge correctly we under report our knowledge when we don't think we know a lot but then the people up on the top of the mountain here who think they know a lot also report the same amount of knowledge that real experts do so yeah so the Dunning Kruger effect is very very similar and it kind of is that

and then there's of course imposter syndrome for the people down here so

yeah exactly uh you said it applies to everybody in here yeah it is probably applied to everybody in here at some point in your career uh unless you're at Absolute new then welcome welcome you're about to have it maybe not you'll get through it it'll be fine you know you're you're gonna do well it's great we all got here we all got where we are we're awesome people so oh question yes

so the peltzman effect is named because peltzman had a study in the 70s that actually studied traffic incidents and studied a behavior mechanism where as people started putting airbags and seat belts into cars people were starting to although it did dramatically reduce fatalities of cars over time it has increased people's feeling of safety they have perceived safety so they're going to take greater risk than they would have if they didn't have those safety mechanisms in place the argument that originally was trying to be made through that though is so we shouldn't put any safety mechanisms in place okay we all laughed but did you laugh because your bias made you laugh or did you laugh because you understand so

maybe that'll be an interesting thing to walk off there but uh yeah any others I like the comment that was good I like a discussion as well oh what's glass of zero Drake glass of zero J is my uh YouTube channel I just pontificate on infosex stuff uh I did stuff like um hiring if you want hot if you want seniors need to hire Juniors um I did don't stop fish testing like I literally think you should stop doing that go go see my video for that anyway enough Shameless self promotion but yeah go check out the YouTube channel it's fun I try to do a video every week uh so I just posted one Monday there'll be

another one uh next Monday probably about this talk actually

so how to question assumptions okay that's good um I think so various approaches right so depending on what your assumption is I think it's important to seek out again things that go against those assumptions you have a conclusion you believe it to be true what would it take for you to believe that it's not true think about that right and that's the way you can start taking a look at that and seeing and is there evidence out there to indicate maybe I am not and you know what it may not even be a situation where you adopt somebody else's conclusion there is a third option between true and something can either be true or not true so we're going back to

logic something can either be true or not true that is there's non-contradiction identity excluded middle except there is a third option that has nothing to do with logic it's simply I don't know and so many times we're afraid to say I don't know and our bias fills in the blank and that's where some of those assumptions can come through so being comfortable saying I don't know it's probably a good step too how much more time do we have 12 minutes well I've got nothing else honestly but if y'all want to talk or say something feel free but uh to everyone at home and everything great to see you but uh uh this talk is this talk

is over go to the website there may be by the way on get lab slash uh odd job there may be a puzzle contest for some of the slides that you saw in here and it may give you a free ticket to Circle city con so uh and the slides are up there so you can go back and check the slides and join in the puzzle first three uh people to put their correct Solutions in one solution one correct solution per person your first solution will be the one that's judged unless you use multiple email addresses which anyway um yeah we'll give away three free tickets to uh three correct submitters the first ones to get it in will be

there and I'm deleting information of everybody after the contest is over so I'm not keeping your data hey Circle city con is based in Indianapolis the Circle City thank you very much southeast of the windy city and Northwest of the Queen City Cincinnati and Southwest of the Summit City uh Fort Wayne uh Summit City oh it's September 16th through the 18th tickets available and they're going up in price on the 15th there you go enough enough other con thanks and enough self-promotion thanks everyone hope you hope your resize lost or yeah your besides Las Vegas was great and uh enjoy your closing ceremony so if you want some stuff at the auctions